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By ALEX WICKHAM
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Good Wednesday morning.
DRIVING THE DAY
99 PROBLEMS: Boris Johnson suffered the largest rebellion of his premiership last night as 99 Conservative MPs voted against his “Plan B” proposals for coronavirus vaccine passports. The revolt, which was larger than many senior Tories had expected, is the most striking challenge to Johnson’s authority yet and raises doubts over whether the prime minister has the political capital to implement tougher restrictions if needed in the coming weeks. For all the intrigue about Johnson’s standing, the reality is politics will likely be overtaken by Omicron news in the coming days. Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty gave a devastating assessment of the situation to Cabinet on Tuesday, and it is quickly becoming clear that infections are rising at unprecedented levels and will now inevitably end with Christmas being canceled for millions of people. One government official told Playbook last night: “It’s worse than everyone thinks.”
Tidal wave approaching: Government scientists expect Britain will have between 300,000 and 400,000 new Omicron infections today. Playbook is told the situation is particularly concerning in London, where the virus is said to be out of control and ripping through the population much faster than in other parts of the country. (London is also the least vaccinated area of England.) Anecdotally, more people seem to have COVID in the capital right now than at any other point in the pandemic. Sources who have seen the government’s modeling for how Omicron is set to surge over the coming days say the graph simply shows a line going almost straight up beyond the million cases per day mark. (If you’re struggling to get your head around Monday’s bombshell that there were 200,000 Omicron infections in a single day, the Times’ Tom Whipple and FT’s Oliver Barnes have useful explainers.)
Get well soon … to the eight MPs who tested positive in the past 24 hours: Feryal Clark … Darren Henry … Bridget Phillipson … Rachel Reeves … Jim McMahon … Matt Vickers … Ed Davey … Simon Fell … as well as several Lobby journalists (h/t Guido). There are genuine concerns that last night’s vote will have been a super-spreader event. POLITICO’s Esther Webber reports that trade unions including Prospect’s Garry Graham have criticized Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg for not allowing remote participation, and are calling for MPs to take daily lateral flow tests before attending. Given the Commons is in recess tomorrow, the big votes were last night and we have end-of-term Prime Minister’s Questions today, it looks a bit late for all that now.
Oh no: The Sun’s Harry Cole notes that from today, if you become ill from COVID, you will have to spend Christmas Day in isolation.
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Mind-melting facts of the day: The Times’ Chris Smyth and Ademola Bello have done the numbers and they are frankly almost incomprehensible. If we go by the official case statistics — a conservative estimate of the real picture — 1 million people will be isolating on Christmas Day. If we take the U.K. Health Security Agency’s projection of the current rate of infection, it would actually mean some 4 million people will catch COVID in the days leading up to Christmas. Four times as many people will have COVID compared with last Christmas, the Times says.
NHS on the brink: In perhaps the most alarming moment Tuesday, Health Secretary Sajid Javid told the Commons there was a “very real risk” that the NHS would be overwhelmed by Omicron. In practice, he said this would lead to a harrowing outcome where children in car crashes could go untreated. A government official insisted last night that this was not just Javid trying to cajole MPs into voting with the government, but an honest assessment of the data Whitty presented to Cabinet.
Tory lag: There is frustration in Whitehall that Tory MPs did not grasp the arguments made to them by Johnson and Javid. Multiple figures from across the government privately blasted Tory backbenchers as out of touch with what is happening with Omicron. One Tory suggested that their MPs suffer from their own COVID “lag” — only realizing how serious things are well after everyone else. Another thought some MPs had backed themselves into a corner by publicly committing to opposing the measures before the extent of the Omicron danger became clear. There is also annoyance that MPs did not seem to accept that even if the vast majority of the population is vaccinated, and even if Omicron is milder, the sheer numbers mean that hospitalizations could still breach hospital capacity. Another minister said a rebellion on vaccine passports paled into insignificance when compared to the prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed: “To be honest arguments about masks and certification are out of date. The focus is on boosters and saving lives.”
Is Omicron milder? Playbook, like many others, has sought reassurance in Twitter threads suggesting that data from South Africa shows Omicron is less severe than other COVID strains. The South African Medical Research Council on Tuesday found Omicron does cause milder symptoms, and that two Pfizer jabs are 70 percent effective against hospitalization. Playbook is sorry to say this, but U.K. government scientists are warning that it would be wrong to conclude that Omicron is milder. One points to a Guardian report suggesting that South Africa is experiencing lower hospitalizations because of three massive previous waves of infection in the country, and therefore it is not comparable with the likely impact on Britain or other countries. The World Health Organization’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said it was “wrong for people to consider Omicron as mild.” The Times says Whitty gave a similar conclusion to ministers Tuesday, warning them not to draw comfort from South Africa.
Best-case scenario: That said, some in government made the case to Playbook that there is a way through. One insider accepted that a huge wave of cases was inevitable, but argued that the booster campaign and the Plan B measures had woken Brits up to the threat. They said many would be taking more care in their personal lives by limiting social interactions without government intervention, and that Plan B was a “signal” for how people should be behaving. What’s more, with booster protection taking a week or so to come in, and massive numbers getting theirs early this week, many could be in a much safer position in time for the peak. Tuesday’s Playbook talked about a “sweet spot” between transmissibility and severity that could see the NHS just about cope without being overwhelmed. There are hopes that the booster effort might just do enough to help curb infections and keep hospital beds just below capacity.
Worst-case scenario: The alternative is that infections rise so high that the number hospitalized is enough to overwhelm the NHS. “If we have a million infections a day, even a very small proportion of those individuals requiring hospitalization will put significant impact on health care,” UKHSA chief Susan Hopkins said on Tuesday. So-called Plan C measures including the “Rule of Six” have been drawn up by officials if the data gets worse in the days ahead. Playbook is also told it is not impossible that Downing Street does something similar to what Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced Tuesday. Sturgeon released new non-legally binding guidance that no more than three households should mix socially over the Christmas period, and that people should reduce social contacts “as much as possible.” This could be a way for No. 10 to communicate tougher action to the public without facing the wrath of Tory MPs by making it a legal requirement.
In numbers: Last winter’s wave saw a peak of 3,768 hospital admissions in a single day. The best case Omicron scenario in modeling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine would see admissions peak at around 2,000. The worst case would see them hit more than 6,000 — which the NHS may not be able to handle. The BBC’s Nick Triggle has more.
Stay tuned: Playbook would expect multiple press conferences over the coming days with Johnson and Whitty.
This morning: Omicron has spread so widely that the U.K. has removed all 11 countries from its travel red list, deciding that there’s no point in trying to stop it crossing the border. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps is on the morning broadcast round.
YESTERDAY’S UK COVID STATS: 59,610 positive cases, ⬆️ 4,949 on Monday. In the last week there have been 377,601 positive cases, ⬆️ 40,708 on the previous week … 150 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, ⬆️ 112 on Monday. In the last week 801 deaths have been reported, ⬇️ 56 on the previous week. As of the latest data 7,672 COVID patients are in hospital.
OMICRON VARIANT: 5,346 cases detected in the U.K., ⬆️ 633.
BOOSTER STATS: A total 24,075,451 people or 41.9 percent of the population aged 12+ have received a booster/third dose, ⬆️ 513,722. 17 days to go until January.
BLUE ON BLUE
WHAT WENT WRONG? Downing Street aides and the government whips office will begin a post mortem this morning on how exactly they let 99 Tory MPs vote against them on vaccine passports, even after the prime minister addressed backbenchers at the 1922 committee to give them the hard sell Tuesday afternoon. A government official told the FT’s George Parker, Seb Payne and Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe: “This is by far at the worst end of expectations.” Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn reckons it’s the second-biggest rebellion against a sitting Tory prime minister by their own MPs ever, only beaten by Theresa May’s first Meaningful Vote, which saw 118 Tory MPs rebel. That is some stat.
Those COVID pass rebels in full: Jackie Doyle-Price … Philip Hollobone … Adam Afriyie … Lee Anderson … Shaun Bailey … Siobhan Baillie … Steve Baker … Harriet Baldwin … John Baron … Scott Benton … Bob Blackman … Peter Bone … Ben Bradley … Karen Bradley … Graham Brady … Andrew Bridgen … Steve Brine … Miriam Cates … Christopher Chope … Brendan Clarke-Smith … Geoffrey Clifton-Brown … Tracey Crouch … Philip Davies … David Davis … Dehenna Davison … Jonathan Djanogly … Richard Drax … Iain Duncan Smith … Tobias Ellwood … Luke Evans … Liam Fox …
Breathe: Louie French … Richard Fuller … Marcus Fysh … Nus Ghani … Jo Gideon … Chris Grayling … Chris Green … Damian Green … James Grundy … Robert Halfon … Stephen Hammond … Mark Harper … John Hayes … Adam Holloway … Tom Hunt … Mark Jenkinson … David Jones … Simon Jupp … Alicia Kearns … Julian Knight … Greg Knight … Robert Largan … Andrea Leadsom … Edward Leigh … Andrew Lewer … Julian Lewis … Chris Loder … Mark Logan … Jonathan Lord … Tim Loughton … Craig Mackinlay … Anthony Mangnall … Karl McCartney … Stephen McPartland …
And more: Esther McVey … Stephen Metcalfe … Damien Moore … Robbie Moore … Anne Marie Morris … Holly Mumby-Croft … Bob Neill … Matthew Offord … Mark Pawsey … Mike Penning … John Penrose … Andrew Percy … Tom Randall … John Redwood … Laurence Robertson … Andrew Rosindell … Gary Sambrook … Bob Seely … Greg Smith … Ben Spencer … Jane Stevenson … John Stevenson … Julian Sturdy … Robert Syms … Derek Thomas … Craig Tracey … Tom Tugendhat … Theresa Villiers … Christian Wakeford … Charles Walker … David Warburton … Giles Watling … William Wragg.
Eyes emoji: Theresa May abstained.
Political repercussions: The vote is obviously a serious blow to Johnson’s standing with his own MPs. The rebels come from across the party: right-wing lockdown skeptics, red wallers, former Cabinet ministers, centrist dads, Brexiteers, Remainers, veterans, 2019ers — and even new Bexley MP Louie French, who had only been an MP for 12 days and boldly decided his first action in Westminster would be to break the Tory whip. There was talk throughout Tuesday that government whips had succeeded in whittling down the rebels. That did not come to pass, so there will be renewed questions about Chief Whip Mark Spencer’s performance following the Owen Paterson debacle. The only silver lining for No. 10’s political operation is that there were no resignations from the government.
Health repercussions: Johnson conceded beforehand that, should he need to implement stricter COVID measures in the weeks ahead, he would recall parliament and give MPs a vote before new restrictions were implemented. That is a major concession and makes any further measures extremely difficult politically, as the number of rebels would likely only increase, to the point where Johnson’s leadership comes into question. One Tory MP told Playbook Tuesday that if the PM tried to bring in lockdown-style measures, the threshold of letters for a no confidence vote would be met. Alternatively, another Tory argued that if the situation was to worsen to the point that new measures are needed, some rebels would fall away and back the government. The extent to which Johnson’s hands are tied on COVID by his skeptical backbenchers is the key political-health dynamic of the next few weeks.
Stalking horse contender: So far since the vote, it has only been veteran MP Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, very much on the dinosaur end of the party, who is publicly suggesting Johnson could be removed. He told Sky last night: “He’s got to now be in some danger, and he’s got to realize that because if he doesn’t he’ll be in much bigger danger. If he realizes that he’s got it wrong, comes back in the new year and does things in a different way, consults the party more, then we’ve got a good chance of uniting. But if that doesn’t happen then we’re in trouble.”
MPs’ eyes are on … the promised Johnson reset coming in the new year. No pressure.
Case closed? The next political threat comes from Cabinet Secretary Simon Case’s investigation into Partygate, which is due to conclude imminently. The Mirror’s Mikey Smith has new revelations from the infamous No. 10 Christmas quiz, obtaining emails showing the event was planned days in advance and staff were told to leave by the back door. “Teams in the office should ensure that they arrange themselves behind the perspex screens,” one email read, adding: “All staff will be required to leave the office immediately after the end of the quiz.” The paper reveals the quiz team names included: “Professor Quiz Whitty,” “Next Slide Please,” “We’ve Been Clear,” “The 6 Masketeers” and “Hands, Face, First Place.”
Going viral: The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar landed another top scoop last night, revealing a photo of the party held by Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey at Conservative HQ. The Bailey campaign apologized unreservedly for the incident and CCHQ say they didn’t authorize the bash. The Lib Dems are already using the pic in digital adverts for the North Shropshire by-election (h/t the BBC’s Lewis Goodall).
24 hours to go … until polls open in North Shropshire, which looks more and more like a season finale with every passing day. Politics Home’s Adam Payne hears that Tory and Lib Dem activists believe there could be just a few hundred votes in it.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland Office questions followed by PMQs at noon … Labour’s Lyn Brown has a ten minute rule bill next that proposes changes to the sentencing of county lines drug gangs that exploit children … After that, MPs will move through the second reading of the Professional Qualifications Bill. Former Defense Minister Johnny Mercer has a fiery-looking adjournment debate later on the role of the public prosecution service in Northern Ireland and the government’s Troubles legacy plans — subjects that tend to attract the fury of Tory backbenchers.
Here we go: Morning Trade U.K.’s Emilio Casalicchio hears a free trade deal with Australia will be announced this week, with some rumors it may even come today. Follow Emilio here for updates.
Priti in court again: Home Secretary Priti Patel has decided that the over 2 million EU citizens who have pre-settled status in Britain will have to reapply for settled status or face deportation. The move has led to the Home Office being taken to court. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has the story.
BOOSTER BATTLE: Playbook hears Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch will address NHS chaplains and faith leaders as part of efforts to boost staff morale ahead of the enormous booster push in the next fortnight. Badenoch will be joined by Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis and vaccine deployment lead Emily Lawson.
MINER DISAGREEMENT: The department for transport is denying that Transport Secretary Grant Shapps was involved in the expected appointment of Tory grandee Patrick McLoughlin as chairman of Transport for the North. The Times reported Tuesday that McLoughlin’s appointment was facing criticism from Labour politicians including Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The transport committee will quiz the U.K. Health Security Agency’s Jenny Harries on the threat Omicron poses to international travel (9.30 a.m.) … A science and tech committee session features a panel on the origins of COVID-19 with Editor of the Lancet Richard Horton and the authors of The Search for the Origin of COVID-19 Matt Ridley and Alina Chan (11 a.m.) … The home affairs committee will take evidence from Safeguarding Minister Rachel Maclean on the investigation and prosecution of rape (10 a.m.) … The public accounts committee will question senior DHSC officials on the critical cancer care backlog (2 p.m.) … Union Connectivity Review chief Peter Hendy will be quizzed by the Welsh affairs committee alongside Wales Office ministers (2.30 p.m.) … and the European scrutiny committee will hear from former U.K. and EU officials including ex-DExEU mandarin Philip Rycroft on the U.K.-EU trade deal (2.30 p.m.).
NIPPON AT JAPANESE HEELS: Britain was left red-faced and behind after reports emerged that Washington has reached out to Japan to agree a truce on steel tariffs while leaving the U.K. out in the cold, POLITICO’s Morning Trade U.K. newsletter writes. The claim from Bloomberg comes less than a week after International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan made pleas to U.S. counterparts — with her invitation for Washington commerce chief Gina Raimondo to visit London next month still unanswered. Labour’s Stephen Kinnock told MTUK the government is “giving us all an object lesson in how to lose friends and alienate people, and our steelworkers are paying the price.”
LIZ IN MADRID: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is in Spain today and Thursday as part of a tour aimed at resetting relations with EU capitals, POLITICO colleague Cristina Gallardo texts in. Truss will meet her Spanish counterpart José Manuel Albares, with security and collaboration through NATO high on the agenda. The two ministers are also likely to touch upon Gibraltar, as the trip coincides with the fourth round of talks for an EU-U.K. treaty on the Rock’s post-Brexit relationship with the bloc.
LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on the number of young people in alternative education, International Day of Democracy and the use of neonicotinoids on sugar beet … Followed by the third day of report stage consideration of the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill.
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MEDIA ROUND
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … Times Radio (9.30 a.m.).
Also on the Today program: COVID Recovery Group Chairman Mark Harper (6.50 a.m.) … Conservative MP Damian Green (7.09 a.m.) … Children’s Commissioner Rachel de Souza (7.50 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Tory MP Christopher Chope (7.05 a.m.) … The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar (9.35 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Tory MP Stephen Hammond (7.20 a.m.) … Statistician David Spiegelhalter (8.07 a.m.) … Director of the Association of Child Protection Professionals Wendy Thorogood (8.20 a.m.) … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden (8.35 a.m.) … Scotland’s National Clinical Director Jason Leitch (8.45 a.m.) … Polling guru John Curtice (9.07 a.m.).
Julia Hartley-Brewer breakfast show (talkRADIO): Labour MP Graham Stringer (7.05 a.m.) … WHO COVID special envoy David Nabarro (7.20 a.m.) … ASCL General Secretary Geoff Barton (7.50 a.m.) … COVID Recovery Group Chairman Mark Harper (8.05 a.m.) … Scottish Daily Mail Political Editor Michael Blackley (8.40 a.m.) … Greater Manchester night time economy adviser Sacha Lord (9.20 a.m.).
GB News breakfast: Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden (7.10 a.m.).
The Briefing with Gloria de Piero (GB News 12 p.m.): Tory MP Nigel Mills and Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 a.m.): Tory peer Ed Vaizey … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … The Mail’s John Stevens … The New Statesman’s Ailbhe Rea … Armed Forces Minister James Heappey … Shadow Care Minister Liz Kendall.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Former Change/Tory MP Anna Soubry … Historian David Starkey … Former Mirror Political Editor Julia Langdon … Comedian Dane Baptiste.
Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and Mail’s Andrew Pierce … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Women and equalities committee Chairwoman Caroline Nokes and Labour MP Angela Eagle.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
Daily Express: Revolt bruises Boris, but will PM be proved right?
Daily Mail: Not again.
Daily Mirror: Monstrous — Child abuse murder.
Daily Star: Brainless.
Financial Times: Johnson suffers biggest setback of premiership in ‘plan B’ rebellion.
HuffPost UK: Boris bruised by Tory COVID rebellion.
i: Omicron threatens normal Christmas.
Metro: PM’s Xmas stuffing.
POLITICO UK: Anne Hidalgo’s sack of Paris.
PoliticsHome: Controversial COVID certification vote passes but Boris Johnson suffers biggest rebellion yet.
The Daily Telegraph: Tory COVID rebels deal hammer blow to Johnson’s authority.
The Guardian: Johnson suffers huge Tory rebellion over COVID passes.
The Independent: Ministers ‘flying blind’ on size of Omicron wave.
The Sun: Keep calm like ma’am — She’s hosting family Xmas dinner.
The Times: Huge COVID rebellion stuns PM.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Cloudy and breezy. Highs of 12C.
GET WELL SOON: FCDO Minister James Cleverly’s wife Susie has been diagnosed with breast cancer. Cleverly tweeted that it appears to have been caught early — very best wishes for her recovery.
JOURNO JOBS: The Scottish Sun is recruiting for a political editor to cover Holyrood and beyond. Details here.
NEW GIG: The department for transport has been given a second permanent secretary, Gareth Davies, presumably in a sign of how busy it has been during COVID and the HGV driver shortages.
BIRTHDAYS: North East Hertfordshire MP Oliver Heald … Shadow Pensions Minister Matt Rodda … Lewisham East MP Janet Daby … Crossbench peer Valerian Freyberg … Times Radio’s Ayesha Hazarika … Welsh Government Social Justice Minister Jane Hutt.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald producer Grace Stranger.
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