Another torrid week — Omicron warnings — Troubles ahead – POLITICO

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By ANNABELLE DICKSON

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2 THINGS TO KNOW

ANOTHER TORRID WEEK: Could Boris Johnson face an even worse week than the last one? Pressure on the prime minister over “party-gate” shows no sign of easing after a picture of him taking part in a Christmas quiz, virtually, but beside two of his top team at Downing Street, was dropped by the Mirror Saturday night.

Call in the cops: Labour leader Keir Starmer (a former director of public prosecutions, remember) has gone for the jugular. He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr this morning it looked as though Johnson was breaking the law. “It is very hard to see how that is compliant with the rules,” Starmer said.

Meanwhile: The number of Conservative MPs set to defy the PM in a vote on Tuesday to impose further measures to stop the spread of Omicron has been steadily increasing over the weekend. The Speccie is doing a great public service and keeping a rebel tally. Saturday’s Telegraph reckoned as many as six parliamentary private secretaries could resign to vote against the measures on Tuesday. It’s going to be a big week.

Happy snappy: Twitter went into overdrive last night when the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar dropped her latest COVID-19 party bombshell — a snap of Johnson hosting a Christmas quiz. Johnson is flanked by two members of his team — one wearing a Santa hat and the other draped in tinsel. The Mirror’s mole says many staff “huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer from a local Tesco Metro.” Starmer told Marr Johnson “must have known those other groups were in other rooms in his own building.”

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Spinning for Johnson: Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi had the unenviable task of defending the government this morning. Zahawi argued the PM was respecting the rules, telling Sky’s Trevor Phillips: “What did we see in that picture? The prime minister on a virtual quiz night for 10 to 15 minutes to thank his staff — who, by the way, had no choice but to come in every single day… sitting in his office with the two people who are closest working with him, no alcohol on the table, not drinking, on a Zoom call or a Teams call, on a virtual call respecting the lockdown rules.”

On the attack: Zahawi was also in combative mood, questioning if the media are “really getting the right balance” in its coverage of party-gate. “Omicron is such an important variant to deal with versus talking about a Zoom call where [the PM] is motivating his team who had to go out to work every day without having the ability to work from home,” he snapped at Sky’s Trevor Phillips. There was a similar dig at the BBC’s Andrew Marr.

Boris BBC bashing: The Mail on Sunday splash suggests this line of attack could be coming right from the top. It reports that Johnson believes the BBC neglected its primary duty of publicizing the need for booster jabs to combat Omicron while covering party-gate. Ministers might want to explain why the health secretary — who could have explained all that — canceled his media round on Wednesday morning.

More party animals: More party chatter made its way into the papers this weekend, and should keep Cabinet Secretary Simon Case busy in his investigation. Saturday’s Times said Treasury officials held drinks to celebrate the spending review during lockdown last year, while the Sunday Mirror hears political staff and officials “would frequently drink after work until the early hours of the morning, and order takeaway food” in Thérèse Coffey’s office at the Department for Work and Pensions.

And more: The Sun on Sunday runs claims that the PM flouted lockdown rules after staying in a fashionable London restaurant until 10:25 p.m. last year — despite the curfew imposing 10 p.m. closing. He was having a late-night dinner date with wife Carrie. No. 10 said of the restaurant visit: “It is categorically untrue to suggest the PM did not adhere to curfew rules in place at the time. Any small delay would have been for operational security reasons.”

Will Labour get dragged into all this? “I’m sure evidence would have emerged,” Starmer told Marr when asked if he could make an absolute pledge Labour lockdown parties had not taken place.

What the public thinks: The latest Opinium poll puts Labour nine points ahead of the Tories — the party’s biggest lead since March 2014. The analysis most likely to concentrate minds in that Downing Street flat is Chris Curtis’ take that, on the projected swing, Johnson would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip South seat.

2. OMICRON WARNINGS: When he wasn’t answering questions about party-gate, Zahawi delivered more dire warnings about the risks of Omicron. It comes as dozens of his own colleagues look set to resist more restrictions in a vote Tuesday.

Hospital picture: Zahawi confirmed the first cases of the variant in hospitals. But as Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn points out — Zahawi was unable to say how many hospitalizations there’ve been, or if those people have been vaccinated.

Scary numbers: The education secretary also repeatedly warned that the new strain is “so infectious that it will dominate and exponentially grow.” If infections reach one million by the the end of December, he said, 10,000 of those people could be severely ill and end up in hospital. Even a “small percentage of a very large population will put many people in hospital,” he warned on Marr when challenged on suggestions Omicron could be a potentially milder infection.

Backup: Also on the Marr Show, Chief Medical Adviser at the UK Health Security Agency Susan Hopkins warned a big wave is “coming straight at us.” “If we see even half the severity that we saw with Delta then we’re facing a very large number of hospitalizations and potential deaths,” she added. Hopkins said the government “may need to go beyond” even the extra restrictions.

Not impressed: This morning’s Sunday Telegraph says the PM would face a major Cabinet revolt if there’s a further tightening of the rules.

But but but: Researchers based at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned this weekend that a failure to impose tougher COVID restrictions could lead to a further 25,000 to 75,000 deaths over the next five months.

Passport problems: Zahawi admitted the debate on COVID passes had “slightly run away with us” for the last few days. Starmer arguably did a better job of explaining the government’s policy than its own ministers, telling Marr he’s persuaded passes are necessary.

Over-30s: Get booking. Zahawi confirmed over-30s will now be able to come forward for their booster jab three months after their second. “It is now a race to get all adults who are eligible for their booster jabs to be boosted as quickly as possible,” he said.

Jabbing the kids: The Sunday Times has seen leaked documents asking health care staff to prepare for the mass vaccination of primary school children in anticipation of approval by regulators. Zahawi said there was “no plan at the moment” to vaccinate primary schools, with the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation still looking at the evidence.

From the rebel front: Tory backbencher and longtime thorn-in-the-side of prime ministers Steve Baker told Sky he would vote against vaccine passports, extending mandatory mask-wearing and mandatory vaccines for NHS workers. He reckons at least 60 MPs will vote against the government.

Watch the CWF: It’s not just on COVID-19 restrictions Baker is mobilizing. He has relaunched Thatcherite grouping Conservative Way Forward. “The Conservative Party will continue to drift into authoritarianism and I can’t stand idly by while that happens,” he explained.

Quote of the day: Asked how much trouble Boris Johnson is in, Baker told LBC’s Tom Swarbrick: “We’re out into oceans of poo, this is very, very, very bad.” But Baker said he won’t be getting involved in trying to remove Boris Johnson from office.

Labour line: Starmer said Labour would back the measures “in the public interest” on Tuesday. “I’m not supporting the government on Tuesday — I’m supporting the NHS and the public,” Starmer told Marr.

Revenge of the May allies: Theresa May would be forgiven for enjoying herself at the moment. The Mail on Sunday claims May allies are plotting revenge on Johnson — although stresses that there’s no suggestion they’re being coordinated by the ex-PM herself. “As Tory MPs gathered in sombre huddles on Wednesday to dissect Boris Johnson’s Commons mauling over ‘Partygate’, allies of Theresa May moved among them like undertakers,” Glen Owen writes.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING

TROUBLES AHEAD: Saturday’s Telegraph says Ben Wallace has serious reservations about plans for the new Legacy Bill, meant to protect troops and terrorists from prosecution in Northern Ireland over their involvement in the Troubles. Watch out for former Defense Minister Johnny Mercer’s adjournment debate on the issue on Wednesday.

GRAB A COFFEE AND READ OR LISTEN

TWO YEARS ON: POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard scoops an interview with Tory election strategist Isaac Levido for his excellent Westminster Insider podcast analysis of the 2019 election two years on. After the week we’ve just had it seems like a lifetime ago.

PM IN PERIL? Francis Elliott has a good go at answering the question everyone is asking this weekend in the Sunday Times — will Boris Johnson survive? Killer quote: “The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally says. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”

WATCH OUT FOR THIS WEEK

ELECTORAL TEST: All eyes on the North Shropshire by-election Thursday. It’s worth remembering this is a seat which had a Tory majority of almost 23,000 the last time it was contested. But Saturday’s Telegraph had quite the vox pop from one lifelong Tory voter.

Expectations management: Zahawi told Times Radio this morning by-elections “historically have been used as a protest vote because people know it’s not going to change the outcome of which party governs the country.”

RAAB’S NEW RIGHTS: Saturday’s Telegraph reckons Justice Secretary Dominic Raab will launch a consultation paper this week setting out how he plans to curtail the influence of the European Court of Human Rights this week. Legal Twitter will be on fire.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio, 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Tory MP Tobias Elwood and the Mirror’s Susie Boniface.

Westminster Hour, BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.: Tory MP Tim Loughton; Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden; Chief Executive of Demos Polly Mackenzie; The Spectator’s Katy Balls.

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WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with work and pensions questions followed by the Armed Forces Bill and Subsidy Control Bill. 

LORDS: Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill

COURTS: Permanent Secretary at Ministry of Justice Antonia Romeo to give evidence on the courts backlog, 4 p.m.

TUESDAY

HEALTH: Chair of the South African Medical Association Angelique Coetzee and the former Chair of the U.K. Vaccine Taskforce Kate Bingham are among witnesses at a science and technology committee session on Omicron, from 9.30 a.m. 

SUPPLY CHAINS: Home Office minister Kevin Foster quizzed on labor shortages in food and farming, 10.30 a.m.  

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with justice questions followed by a debate and vote on the new COVID-19 restrictions, including the COVID-19 pass.

LORDS: Armed Forces Bill and Education (Environment and Sustainable Citizenship) Bill, COVID-19 regulations, Advanced Research and Invention Agency Bill, Charities Bill [HL] (Law Commission Bill)

SPACE: Astronaut Tim Peake up before the defense committee, 2.30 p.m.

WEDNESDAY

INFLATION: Latest Retail Price Index stats from the Office for National Statistics, 7 a.m.

TRAVEL: Chief Executive of the UK Health Security Agency Jenny Harries plus Aviation Minister Robert Courts give evidence on the recovery of the aviation sector, from 9.30 a.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland questions following by PMQs and the Professional Qualifications Bill and an adjournment debate on legacy of the Troubles legislation.   

UNION: Chair of the Union Connectivity Review — which looked at the so-called ‘Boris Bridge’ — Peter Hendy to give evidence to the Welsh affairs committee, 2.30 p.m.

COVID-19: Chief Medical Officer for England Chris Whitty and Chief Medical Advisor at UK Health Security Agency Susan Hopkins give evidence to the health select committee on the Omicron variant, 4.30 p.m.

THURSDAY       

ELECTION: North Shropshire by-election

COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with transport questions followed by the business statement. Parliament rises for the Christmas holidays until January 5.

BANK OF ENGLAND: Central bank’s monetary policy committee decides on interest rates, noon.

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