Between the City and the Holy See

Hello and welcome to the working week.

London’s status as the world’s financial services capital has been battered by the UK’s departure from the EU. But that is the past. What this newsletter cares about is the future. And the City’s bankers could this week get a glimpse of the government’s vision for it.

Boris Johnson, prime minister, will on Monday deliver the annual speech at the Mansion House, addressing the newly installed Lord Mayor of London, for whom the building is his official residency.

Does the answer to the UK financial services industry lie in embracing the green movement or reforming City regulations, such as listing rules? Probably a mixture of them all. Or perhaps Johnson will return to one of his current pastimes: bashing big business.

In other world news, watch out on Wednesday for the resumption of a landmark Vatican alleged-corruption trial that revolves around the purchase by the Holy See’s secretariat of state of a commercial and residential building in London’s South Kensington. The Financial Times has charted this story and this week produced this insightful video to bring you up to speed.

Thank you for your emails about The Week Ahead — send to jonathan.moules@ft.com. We listen, which is why this week — at the suggestion of several readers, who read the economic report ahead of the companies preview, we are switching the order a bit.

Economic data

Before Boris pontificates in front of the City’s business executives on Monday, Westminster politicians will be grilling Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee when they appear before the Treasury committee.

MPs will want to know why the MPC did not vote to raise the base rate to tackle growing UK inflation when the governor had previously suggested that a move was imminent.

We will get a better picture of the relative recovery of big economies around the world with the publication of the IHS Markit purchasing managers’ surveys on Monday.

We will also get quarterly gross domestic product estimates and inflation data with Japan, the EU, the UK and others reporting data. If you want to understand a bit more about inflation and why central bankers might need to be able to change their opinions, read this edition of Robert Armstrong’s Unhedged newsletter.

Companies

We are approaching the end of the earnings season, so there are fewer big name companies reporting this week.

Investors in Vodafone will be assessing the telecoms group’s post-pandemic growth prospects when it reports interim results on Tuesday. Vodafone has been busy doing deals in the UK to broaden its broadband footprint in the home market, and transferring its majority stake in Vodafone Egypt to Vodacom Group Limited, its sub-Saharan African subsidiary, increasing its ownership of Vodacom from 60.5 per cent to 65 per cent.

Other factors are working in Vodafone’s favour. The return of international travel and the general uptick in business activity should have helped lift mobile phone use, although this is tempered by weaker consumer purchasing power.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Canada, monthly manufacturing survey and wholesale trade figures

• China, monthly retail sales and industrial production figures

• China, Europe, France, Germany, UK, US: IHS Markit business outlook data

• EU, Eurostat monthly trade in goods figures

• Japan, monthly industrial production and quarterly GDP figures

• Nigeria, inflation data

• UK, voluntary real living wage rate announced by mayor of London Sadiq Khan and Rightmove monthly house price index

• Results: Logitech Q2

Tuesday

• EU, preliminary GDP estimate and employment data

• France, inflation data

• International Energy Agency monthly oil market report

• Italy, Consumer Price Index figures

• UK, labour market data and productivity estimate

• US, retail sales and production figures, plus import and export price indices

• Results: Bouygues Q3, Home Depot Q3, Imperial Brands FY, Landsec H1, Vodafone H1, Walmart Q3

Wednesday

• Canada, CPI data

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia Q1 trading update

• EU, Eurostat inflation figures

• UK, Producer Price Index and CPI figures, plus house price data

• US, residential construction figures

• Results: British Land H1, Cisco Systems Q1, Experian H1, Lowe’s Q3, Manchester United FY, Nvidia Q3, Sage Group FY, SSE H1, Target Q3

Thursday

• Japan, inflation rate figures

• UK, ONS comparisons of all-cause mortality between European countries and regions, plus business demography data

• Results: Daily Mail and General Trust FY, Thyssenkrupp FY, National Grid H1, Nationwide Building Society H1, Royal Mail H1

Friday

• Canada, monthly retail sales figures

• France, quarterly employment data

• Germany, monthly PPI figures

• FTSE Group announces quarterly change to companies on its share index

• UK, ONS consumer confidence, retail sales and public sector finance data

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• International Atomic Energy Agency’s board meets in Vienna

• UK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other members of the bank’s MPC give evidence to parliament’s Treasury committee

• British prime minister Boris Johnson addresses business leaders at the annual City Banquet at London’s Mansion House

• US, president Joe Biden hosts a bipartisan bill-signing ceremony for his Infrastructure Deal (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)

Tuesday

• Denmark, local elections held

• The Macklowe Collection, said to be the most expensive art collection ever to come up for auction, goes under the hammer at Sotheby’s in New York

Wednesday

• Czech Republic, Slovakia: anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, seen widely as a turning point leading to the collapse of communist regimes in eastern Europe

• Vatican trial of 10 people accused of financial crimes, including Cardinal Angelo Becciu, resumes. The case centres on a property deal in London’s wealthy South Kensington by the Vatican’s secretariat of state

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday