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By Jon Craig, chief political correspondent

So it was 101 rebels, as Labour had predicted, after all, after a mix-up with the numbers, and 99 Tory MPs – plus two tellers – voting against the government is a humiliation and a disaster for Boris Johnson and reveals serious flaws in his strategy.

Sunday night’s TV broadcast infuriated many MPs and now appears to have been a serious blunder. And this mutiny looks like a turning point in his premiership, just two years after he won a famous election victory with a majority of 80 seats.

The rebels, who – embarrassingly for the PM – included Louie French, who was only elected MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup in a by-election just 12 days ago, were a coalition of several tribes:

1. The “disappointed and disaffected”, the “has beens” and the “never was” tribe. These include sacked ministers and no-hopers who have long given up ambitions of government office. They include Adam Afryie, Tim Loughton;
2. The 2019 new boys and girls, 26 in all, including Alicia Kearns, Mark Logan, Holly Mumby-Croft, Gary Sambrook and Christian Wakeford;
3. Grandees: The so-called “men in grey suits” like Sir Graham Brady, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, and Sir Charles Walker, who may at some point be called upon to go to the PM and – as the old political cliché goes – hand him the whisky and loaded revolver;
4. The “Red Wallers” who won seats which had been Labour for generations, including Lee Anderson and Dehenna Davidson;
5. The “libertarian Right” who loathe what they regard as petty rules, political correctness and wokery, including Sir Desmond Swayne, Sir Christopher Chope, Philip Davies and his wife Esther McVey and Sir John Hayes;
6. The Brexiteer “Spartans”, like Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, David Davis, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, David Jones. Dame Andrea Leadsom. Craig Macknlay, Sir John Redwood and Theresa Villiers and Mark Francois. Do these MPs now believe that having got Brexit done Mr Johnson has outlived his usefulness?
7. And finally, embittered Theresa May supporters said to be out for revenge on Boris Johnson for bringing her down in 2019, including ex-ministers Karen Bradley, Chris Grayling, Damian Green, Stephen Hammond.

It’s a very broad coalition but has proved to be deadly. The Prime Minister’s authority is in tatters, his enemies will claim. Can he recover?

He desperately needs a win, however slender, at the North Shropshire by-election on Thursday. Defeat there – inflicted by voters outraged at “party-gate” and “wallpaper-gate” – would pile on the agony and make a leadership challenge next year a real possibility.

It’s as serious as that.