Decarbonising the economy could lead to hundreds of thousands of job losses, so what can be done?

As the world slowly starts to move away from fossil fuels, Australia’s lucrative export markets are predicted to undergo a massive shift.  

As the shift occurs, new research predicts up to 300,000 jobs could be lost over the coming decades in mining and other related industries, such as services — with most losses hitting regional areas.

The report by independent think tank the Centre for Policy Development (CPD) mapped out how many jobs could be lost and where, if our trading partners follow through on plans to decarbonise by 2050.

“We’ve got to understand that the demand for that product [fossil fuel exports] is not going to be anything like what it is today, that’s going to be a much smaller industry, it’s going to support … fewer jobs,” CPD’s policy director Toby Phillips said.

It’s a reality that coal miner Grant Howard is well aware of. He has been in the industry for 40 years, the last 20 of those in central Queensland’s Bowen Basin. 

“I’ve had a great run and I want the same as what I’ve had, I want that for future generations,” he said.

Planning for a ‘predictable and manageable change’

The Bowen Basin is heavily reliant on coal exports, both metallurgical coal for steel and to a lesser extent thermal coal. 

Mr Phillips said those exports left the region vulnerable, with the report finding the Bowen Basin and the Hunter in NSW were likely to be the most heavily impacted.

“These affected jobs are highly concentrated in around half a dozen local government areas,” he said.

The report calls on all levels of government to plan ahead for what Mr Phillips described as a “predictable and manageable” change.

“The transition challenge over the next 30 years is not so much about dealing with a major shock to the entire Australian economy,” he said. 

‘Scary numbers don’t help’

In the heart of the Hunter, Singleton Chamber of Commerce president Sue Gilroy said frightening headline figures were not helpful. 

“I just think it scares people,” she said.

“They want to put their head back in the sand … because 300,000 jobs is a lot of jobs.”

Ms Gilroy, who has worked in the coal industry in the past, said she was realistic about its future. 

“It’ll be a lot of years yet and we know coal is a big part of what we do here in the Hunter and fossil fuel is a big part of what we do,” she said. 

New investment, jobs

Warrick Jordan from the Hunter Jobs Alliance said work was already being done on the ground. 

“To be honest, these types of dire predictions aren’t very helpful. The sky isn’t falling in, but there are real issues that we need to address,” he said.

“There’s a lot of good, smart people who are working on attracting new investment and growing jobs.”

Mr Jordan has called for a locally run coordinating body — that would oversee a decarbonisation of the economy — otherwise known as a transition authority. 

“The best models we see [are] where you have a state government that creates the framework, creates the authority and puts resources in, and then you have an Australian or a Commonwealth level of support that can provide resourcing in the right policy environment.”

For Mr Howard, reports like this one are important. 

“I think these reports are good because they help to maintain the conversation, they start to wrap some numbers around ideas, and the consequences of not making these adjustments,” he said.