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By ANNABELLE DICKSON
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5 THINGS TO KNOW
1. LONG HAUL: The Ukrainian conflict has a long way to run, senior U.K. Cabinet ministers are warning this weekend — as they try to ready Brits for economic consequences at home.
Fighters: “This could be a number of years, because what we do know is Russia have strong forces, but we know that the Ukrainians are brave, they’re determined to stand up for their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they’re determined to fight,” Foreign Secretary Liz Truss warned on Sky’s Trevor Phillips show. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace’s interview with the Mail on Sunday expresses a similar sentiment. “What Putin has done today will lay the seeds for the ultimate end of Putin – whether it’s ten years, one year; The bodies can’t be hidden,” he said.
Defiance and bravery: The U.K. Sunday paper front pages are dominated by accounts of the defiance and bravery of the Ukrainian forces and their President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — as well as emotive pleas to help refugees of war on the edge of Europe. Truss told the BBC’s Sophie Raworth the latest U.K. intelligence suggests Ukrainians are “fighting very hard. They are resisting Russian advances,” she said.
Environmental warning: But for all the talk of defiance, there are grim reports coming out of Ukraine today. Ukrainian authorities warned overnight that the Russians have blown up a gas pipeline in Kharkiv and an oil depot in Vasylkiv, a city near Kyiv. People living in the area have been warned to cover their windows with damp cloth or gauze amid warnings it could cause an “environmental catastrophe.” POLITICO’s Zoya Sheftalovich has more.
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Could get worse: Truss also warned on Sky the conflict is likely to escalate, saying the world should “be prepared for Russia to seek to use even worse weapons.” The International Criminal Court is already looking at what is happening in Ukraine and Truss later warned on the BBC that Russian officials “could well be tried for war crimes in the future.” “If I was a senior Russian official, or indeed the president, I would be very wary of taking further steps,” she told Raworth.
Join-up: In a newsworthy media round Truss, who will speak to G7 counterparts today and will travel to the region this week, also backed Zelenskiy’s call for people from abroad to join the Ukrainian fight, telling Raworth she would support them “absolutely if that is what they want to do.” She later told Times Radio it was a “just cause.” More here from POLITICO’s James Randerson.
Miscalculation: Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko told the BBC the Russians had “miscalculated” and insisted the “whole nation is against them.” “People are prepared, people know how to create simple weapons, we’re not talking about complicated machinery,” he said.
Long-term strategy: The invasion of Ukraine has inevitably put a spotlight on U.K. defense spending and foreign policy. Asked about the PM’s recent claim that the days of big tank battles in Europe were over, Truss told Raworth: “I don’t think any of us thought we would be here.” She added: “We will need to do more. We will need to spend more, and we will need to provide more support.”
Speaking of which: Huge news out of Germany in the past 24 hours. On Saturday, the German government announced it would provide lethal weapons to Ukraine — a historic shift by a country that had long prohibited sending such arms into conflict zones. POLITICO’s David Herszenhorn and Lili Bayer look at the path to this big change in policy.
And there’s more: In another major foreign policy shift, Chancellor Olaf Scholz this morning announced a major boost to German military spending. POLITICO’s Hans Von Der Burchard has all the details.
2. DIPLOMATIC DANCE: Russia should remove their troops from Ukraine if they are serious about negotiating, Truss warned on Sky. “Frankly, I don’t trust the so-called efforts of negotiation,” Truss added. It comes after Zelenskiy rejected a Russian offer of talks in Belarus on Sunday, saying Minsk itself was complicit in the Russian invasion. He hasn’t ruled out negotiations elsewhere. Reuters has more.
3. REFUGEE ROW: The U.K. government is looking at what more it can do to support Ukrainian refugees, Truss told Raworth amid a heated row over Whitehall’s approach to refugees. The Labour Party warned those fleeing war-torn Ukraine are facing “red tape” and “bureaucracy.”
In numbers: Refugee agency the UNHCR now reckons the number of people fleeing Ukraine has reached 368,000, the BBC reports.
Immoral: “Why would we ask people what their salary levels are when you’re fleeing war? That is immoral. It is not in the traditions of this country,” Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in his own BBC interview. He called for a “generous scheme” similar to one set up after war in the Balkans, or the recently-launched system for Hong Kong nationals.
Deleted tweet: Tone deaf award of the weekend goes to Immigration Minister Kevin Foster who suggested in a Tweet on Saturday night that Ukrainians fleeing war could apply for jobs picking fruit and veg if they want to come to the U.K. The post was later deleted. The Mirror has a write-up of the gaffe and Lammy said the suggestion was “totally totally unacceptable.”
Slapdown: Truss didn’t sound impressed. “I believe that tweet has been deleted,” she told Raworth. “We are working on what more we can do to support refugees coming out of Ukraine, working with our European allies,” she added. “We will be saying more about this very shortly,” she earlier told Sky. “I want to send a very strong message or the United Kingdom welcomes refugees.”
4. SANCTIONS SEQUEL: Britain will bring forward new financial crime legislation, Truss confirmed this morning. Many papers report today that the long-awaited Economic Crime Bill. will be brought forward as early as next week.
Incoming: A register of the ultimate owners of overseas firms that control land and property could be created, the Sunday Telegraph says. It has more detail of the plans. Unexplained wealth orders could be bolstered. The Sunday Times hears Home Secretary Priti Patel will on Tuesday introduce emergency laws to enable investigators to better probe the source of assets they suspect were acquired through illicit means. MPs and peers pushing for that one for years. A senior government source told the Sunday Times the seized property of Russian billionaires could even be used to house Ukranian refugees.
SWIFT(ish) action: Western leaders agreed on Saturday evening to impose more financial sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including removing “selected Russian banks” from the SWIFT international payments system. In a joint statement, leaders of the United States, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada vowed to “hold Russia to account and collectively ensure that this war is a strategic failure” for Russian President Vladimir Putin. POLITICO’s Lili Bayer writes up the development here.
Rolling Oligarch hit: Amid criticism the U.K. has not done enough to sanction Russian oligarchs in London Truss told Raworth the government is hitting them “one-by-one” and making sure legal cases are tight. She told Sky: “We are targeting oligarch’s private jets, we’ll be targeting their properties, we’ll be targeting other possessions that they have and there will be nowhere to hide.”
What Labour wants: Lammy said Labour wants to see the insurance industry sanctioned, and to see the names of the 100 people on Truss’s hit list. He also called for more banks to be targeted.
5. ON THE HOME FRONT: Politicians across the political divide warned Britons to expect an economic hit from the conflict. Truss said the cost of living is set to rise even more, telling Raworth it’s a price worth paying “because the alternative of allowing Putin to succeed, will be far worse for peace and democracy across Europe.”
Ukrainian comparison: “The pain that we will face in the United Kingdom is nothing like the pain that people in Ukraine are currently facing,” she said. “They are having to take up arms in the face of an appalling dictator, using untold weapons on their country, and that is what we have to remember,” Truss told Raworth.
Labour response: Lammy said the likely cost crunch means that issues the opposition party have been raising are “more important, not less important,” renewing calls for a windfall tax on oil and gas giants who’ve made huge profits.
ALSO WORTH KNOWING
DOWNING STREET DYNAMO: David Canzini, an ally of election-winning strategist Lynton Crosby, is due to start work in Downing Street tomorrow, the Sunday Telegraph reports.
Why he is needed: A weekend poll to mull for Tory MPs and the Cabinet. A projection for the Sunday Times reckons Tory support has dropped to 2005 levels and Boris Johnson and half his top ministers would be on course to lose their seats if an election was held now. More here.
CELEBRITY INVOLVEMENT: Musician Brian May and actor Joanna Lumley are among the celebs calling on the PM to crack on with his ban on imports of foie gras and fur.
BBC IN CRISIS: Lots of analysis of the future of the BBC around this weekend after big guns Emily Maitlis and Jon Sopel jumped ship for Global last week. The Observer is among those looking at what comes next.
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TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS WEEK
The controversial Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill returns to Commons this week after series of defeats in the House of Lords, including over plans to give police new powers to stop disruptive protests, and a separate clause imposing noise restrictions on demonstrations. Open Democracy has a good piece looking at some of the concerns about the government’s proposed legislation.
Patel wrote to MPs last week to tell them the bill is “vitally important as we overhaul the criminal justice system and make our streets safer.”
GRAB A COFFEE AND READ
ZELENSKIY’S WAR: “Even if Zelenskiy caved to Putin’s demands, it’s not clear he would be able to save his country. If he doesn’t, it’s not clear he can save his own life,” POLITICO’s David Herszenhorn looks at the role and background of former comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy, thrust into the global spotlight as Ukraine’s wartime president.
INSIDE NO. 10: Tim Shipman’s anecdote-laden analysis of the PM’s handling of the crisis in the Sunday Times is worth a read. He recounts how an aide turned to Johnson last week and joked: “Who would have thought that a former chat-show host would turn into a statesman of great principle and stature. It wouldn’t happen here!” Johnson flashed a sharp look, Shipman recounts.
PATH TO POLITICS: Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, sister of the murdered MP Jo Cox, talks about her path into politics in the Mail on Sunday’s YOU magazine.
SUNDAY MEDIA ROUND
Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio, 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Svitlana Zalishchuk, adviser to Ukraine’s deputy PM; Lib Dem MP Layla Moran; Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price; Labour MP Barbara Keeley; SNP MP Stewart McDonald and the FT’s Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe.
Westminster Hour, BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.: Tory MP Robert Buckland; Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry; former EU High Representative Cathy Ashton and the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.
WEEK AHEAD
SUNDAY
— UKRAINE: High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrell to host virtual meeting of EU foreign ministers, 6 p.m. local time.
MONDAY
— COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with Home Office questions followed by the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill.
— LORDS: Nationality and Borders Bill scrutinized.
— DEFENSE: Top Ministry of Defence officials David Williams and Richard Knighton give evidence to the public accounts committee on military equipment, 4 p.m.
— LEVELING UP: Minister Neil O’Brien and leveling up taskforce chief Andy Haldane are up in front of the leveling up committee, 4 p.m.
TUESDAY
— COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with health and social care questions followed by the Professional Qualifications Bill and National insurance Contributions Bill.
— UKRAINE: Priti Patel is expected to introduce emergency laws to overhaul the unexplained wealth order regime.
— LEVELING UP: Cabinet minister Michael Gove gives evidence to the public administration committee, 2 p.m.
— LORDS: Health and Care Bill scrutiny.
WEDNESDAY
— COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with COP26 questions followed by PMQs and an opposition debate.
— LORDS: Coroners (Determination of Suicide) Bill; Cigarette Stick Health Warnings Bill; Onshore Wind Bill; Nationality and Borders Bill.
— FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss at the foreign affairs committee, 9.30 a.m.
THURSDAY
— COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with international trade questions followed by the business statement and a general debate on Welsh affairs.
— LORDS: Health and Care Bill scrutiny.
— FRAUD: Former minister Theodore Agnew, who resigned citing government inaction on fraud, gives evidence to a Lords committee looking at the Fraud Act, 10.30 a.m.
FRIDAY
— LORDS: Private members bills.
Thanks to Matt Honeycombe-Foster for brining a keen editing eye to Crunch.
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