This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 July to 30 September 2021 (quarter 3). Please also refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for further data.
Date published: 4 November 2021
Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Amy Baxter
Key results
- 3,324 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office in the third quarter of 2021, representing a 6% increase compared to the preceding quarter (3,130) and a 33% increase from quarter 3 in 2020 (2,497)
- the number of referrals received this quarter is the second highest since the NRM began in 2009 (the highest number was 3,343 in quarter 4 2019)
- 78% (2,600) were male and 22% (720) were female
- 53% (1,776) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only and 35% (1,176) claimed exploitation overseas only
- the number of potential victims that claimed exploitation overseas this quarter is the highest since the NRM began (previously 1,026 in quarter 4 2020)
- 50% (1,677) of referrals were for potential victims who claimed exploitation as adults and 41% (1,351) claimed exploitation as children
- for adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (39%; 657), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (47%; 635)
- the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK, Albanian and Vietnamese
- 3,332 reasonable grounds and 810 conclusive grounds decisions were made this quarter; of these, 89% of reasonable grounds and 91% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
- the Home Office received 716 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process
Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals
Source: Single Competent Authority (SCA)
Notes(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
1. Introduction
Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK that come to the attention of authorised ‘first responder’ organisations are referred to the NRM.
Authorised ‘first responder’ organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children under the age of 18 need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.
When referred to the NRM, the SCA within the Home Office makes a ‘reasonable grounds’ decision on whether an individual could be a victim of modern slavery.
Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support (including accommodation, subsistence, legal aid and counselling) pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children.
Currently, adults with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to at least a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive nine days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.
On 14 June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme that will test alternative models of decision making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. Decisions made by the ten pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. See further information regarding the pilots.
2. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)
2.1 Number of referrals by age group
In the third quarter of 2021, the NRM received 3,324 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 6% increase in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (3,130) and a 33% increase from quarter 3 in 2020 (2,497). This quarter saw the second-highest number of quarterly referrals since the NRM began and the highest number of referrals since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of all referrals this quarter, 50% (1,677) were for potential victims who claimed exploitation as adults (compared to 50% in the preceding quarter), whilst 41% (1,351) claimed exploitation as children (Figure 2). The age group at exploitation was unknown in 9% of cases (296).
Figure 2: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age group of exploitation
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.
2.2 Location of exploitation
Overall, 53% (1,776) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only, compared to 61% in the last quarter, whilst 35% (1,176) claimed exploitation overseas only (data table 2; Figure 3). Following a substantial decrease in quarter 1, referrals for those claiming exploitation overseas have increased sharply again this quarter, which is likely due to increased travel into the UK as COVID-19 travel restrictions have eased.
Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2.3 Referrals by gender and exploitation type
Overall, of the 3,324 potential victims referred in this quarter, 78% (2,600) were male and 22% (720) were female. These proportions are similar to recent quarters, although male potential victims have formed an increasing proportion of NRM referrals over the years.
For adult potential victims, 77% (1,293) were male and 23% (381) were female; whilst for child potential victims, 79% (1,073) were male and 21% (277) were female.
Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age group
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Data for unclassified exploitation can be provided in a free-text field by first responders. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
Overall, NRM referrals for labour exploitation surpassed those for criminal exploitation for the first time this quarter. Referrals for labour exploitation only accounted for 30% (984) of all referrals. An additional 19% (645) of referrals stated potential victims had been referred for labour exploitation and other exploitation types.
For adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (39%; 657), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (47%; 635). See further information on types of exploitation.
For those exploited as children, an increase in the identification of ‘county lines’ cases has partially driven the increase in referrals within the criminal exploitation category. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.
In quarter 3, 515 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 15% of all referrals received in the quarter (data table 14). The majority (76%; 389) of these referrals were for male children.
Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age group at exploitation and gender
Source: SCA
Notes(s): County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to quarter 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.
2.4 Referrals by nationality
The most common nationality referred was UK nationals, which accounted for 28% (928) of all potential victims (compared to 33% in the previous quarter). The second most commonly referred nationality was Albanian (19%; 636) and the third was Vietnamese (10%; 328).The lower proportion of UK nationals referred this quarter may be due to the increase in referrals for overseas exploitation. A large proportion (76%; 705) of UK nationals were child potential victims, whilst for Albanian nationals, most (80%; 507) were adult potential victims. For Vietnamese nationals, 67% (219) were adults and 22% (73) were child potential victims (Figure 6).
Please note, a change to data recording from 1 October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.
Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age group at exploitation
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.
2.5 Referrals by location of crime investigation
Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation, based on the information provided on the referral form, and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.
As in previous quarters, most (89%; 2,966) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 3% (92) to Police Scotland, 3% (112) to Welsh police forces and 4% (129) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 2).
2.6 First responders
In quarter 3 2021, 41% (1,360) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 34% in the previous quarter. Of these referrals, 41% (554) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement (IE), compared to 33% in the previous quarter, whilst a large proportion came from UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) (54%; 739) (Figure 7 and data table 10). Police forces accounted for 26% (873) of NRM referrals in quarter 3 (compared to 33% in the previous quarter). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 8% (257) of referrals. Local authorities accounted for 25% (834) of referrals, mostly for child potential victims.
Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified NGOs, police forces and specified government agencies. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.
3. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)
3.1 Reasonable grounds decisions
The SCA issued 3,332 reasonable grounds decisions in quarter 3 2021. Of these decisions, 89% (2,978) were positive and 11% (354) were negative. The proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 88% for adult and 91% for child potential victims (data table 15). The proportion of positive decisions has remained relatively similar in recent years, with around nine out of every ten referrals receiving a positive decision.
Figure 8: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Based on the quarter in which the SCA issued their decision.
3.2 Conclusive grounds decisions
In quarter 3, the SCA issued 810 conclusive grounds decisions, compared to 495 in the previous quarter and 912 in the same quarter of the previous year. Of the decisions issued this quarter, 91% (734) were positive and 9% (76) were negative. The proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 88% for adult and 94% for child potential victims (data table 16). The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued has been increasing over the course of 2021 due to the recruitment of additional decision makers by the SCA.
Figure 9: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Based on the quarter in which the SCA issued their decision.
The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made in this quarter was 524 days, compared to 436 days in the previous quarter. It is important to note that the decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision from the SCA in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Some cases that receive decisions in this period may have taken longer to reach a decision than those in previous quarters (data table 17).
3.3 Duty to Notify
Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders do not collect the potential victim’s personal details.
In quarter 3 2021, the Home Office received 716 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (Figure 10), compared to 910 in the preceding quarter. Of these:
the most commonly referred nationalities were Eritrean (101; 14%), Albanian (80; 11%) and Romanian (75; 10%) (data table 19)
the most commonly referred exploitation types were labour (289; 40%), sexual (126; 18%) and criminal (92; 13%) (data table 20)
in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office – UKVI (315; 44%), Home Office – UK Border Force UKBF (84; 12%) and Home Office – IE (33; 5%)
Figure 10: Number of quarterly Duty to Notify referrals
Source: SCA
Notes(s): Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.
4. Further information
Quality information
All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.
It is important to note that the statistics presented in this publication relate to the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM or via the DtN process.
These statistics are based on the situation as at 7 October 2021 when an extract was taken from the live management information system. The figures may differ from previous or future reports as new information comes to light and cases update accordingly.
NRM statistics were previously published by the National Crime Agency (NCA) prior to transfer of NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, these data are now designated as official statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.
Data tables for further analysis can be found online alongside this bulletin.
This statistical bulletin is produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.
Changes to data table formatting
Several of the data tables published alongside this bulletin have been reformatted to reduce the number of tables whilst still providing the same data. Table 7 (Number of NRM referrals by UK country of responsible police force and age group) which was provided in previous updates has been removed as this information is available in table 2. Tables 16-26 provided in previous updates (breaking down referrals received by police forces from England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) have been removed. This information is now available in tables 3-8. The information previously provided in tables 11-13 (breaking down referrals for each first responder) is now provided in tables 10-12.
Changes to recording of exploitation types
Prior to 1 October 2019, potential victims of modern slavery were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into five distinct categories: labour, sexual, domestic servitude, organ harvesting or unknown exploitation. Following changes to the way NRM data are collected, recording of exploitation types has changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. As a result, for referrals received from 1 October 2019, criminal exploitation is separate to labour exploitation. In addition, potential victims can also be recorded as experiencing multiple exploitation types, so apply caution when comparing exploitation type statistics from quarter 4 2019 with previous quarters, as the primary exploitation type is unknown. Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’is no longer a distinct category on the online form that first responders use when submitting a referral; instead, they can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force:
Police force data provided in associated reference tables are based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force. Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. This will be reflected in the updated statistics. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:
the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area
Other related publications
National Referral Mechanism statistics
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