Today’s Market View – Cornish Metals, Premier African Metals, W Resources, and more…

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SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 25 04 22

Base metal prices pull back on stronger dollar and China Covid disruption

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MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 

 

Graphene / graphite purification – private financing

  • We are inviting investors to finance a private company which produces high-grade graphite and graphene from low grade graphitic material.
  • The company also sells:  Graphene paint, and is developing Li-ion battery anodes along with a Concrete modifier

*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.

 

Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – Valuation 48p/s – Cornish metals Special Meeting to approve Vision Blue Resources funding

Hummingbird Resources PLC (LSE:HUM) – Quarterly production drops with FY22 reiterated at 87-97koz

Libero Copper & Gold (OTCMKTS:LBCMF) – Company responds to media article over the status of its exploration license

Orosur Mining Inc (AIM:OMI, TSX-V:OMI)* – Drilling commences at Pepas prospect, Anzá

Premier African Minerals Ltd (AIM:PREM) – Binding JV signed for 50% of Prem’s Li3 Project

Rambler Metals and Mining PLC (AIM:RMM, TSX-V:RAB)* – Drilling returns good grades at depth and extends the resource to the east

W Resources PLC (AIM:WRES) – Suspended – Nomad and brokers resign with immediate effect

 

Gold prices fall for third straight day on Fed tightening concerns

  • Gold prices continued to slide on Monday morning, on concern that the Federal Reserve will move more aggressively to tighten monetary policy in a bid to cool inflation.
  • The prospect of higher rates has boosted the dollar, which makes gold more expensive to holders of other currency.
  • Bullion fell to a two-week low as Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely endorsed a 50bps increase next month.
  • Expect news on Federal Reserve policy to move bullion in the coming weeks, amid increasing pressure on the central bank to act fast in order to rein in inflation.
  • The physical demand outlook in China remains uncertain as lockdowns are still in force and jewellery stores remain closed.
  • Despite these headwinds, support for gold remains underpinned as its role as a safe haven amid the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

 

Metals production disrupted by energy crisis in Europe

  • Some smelters should be able to cut production and sell gas and power back to the grid.
  • This is still bad for output and will have knock-on impacts.

 

Dow Jones Industrials -2.82% at 33,811

Nikkei 225 -1.90% at 26,591

HK Hang Seng -3.97% at 19,819

Shanghai Composite -5.13% at 2,929

  

Economics

US – FOMC to agree a 0.5% rate hike on 3/4May meeting.

  • Yellen offers incentive to China by offering potential for lower US tariffs on Chinese goods.

 

China – Disruption to unloading in Shanghai and other ports now causing major issues due to Covid lockdown issues.

  • China appears to be maintaining a Zero Covid policy, but, in reality, maybe it is just slowing the spread of the disease while it treats an unusual number of migraine suffers in intensive care by ventilating their lungs.
  • Investors look for more Stimulus to offset a collapse in retail sales in the West, the impact of the war in Ukraine and higher transport and energy prices.
  • If the PBOC cuts rates capital will increasingly flow into US Treasuries and weaken the yuan further as US rates rise

 

Mexico – legislation now allows for the Mexican state to nationalise any mineral declared as strategic

 

Peru – State of emergency near Southern Copper’s Cuajone cu mine which has halted output since 15Mch.

 

Chile – Regulator recommends Anglo should not be given permission for $3.3bn extension to Los Bronces copper mine

  • Anglo American have been looking to extend the Los Bronces mine life to 2036 though the expenditure of $3.3bn.
  • The mine extension is opposed by environmental groups due to its impact on local water supplies and proximity to a glacier.
  • Water resources are a major concern in Chile where farmers compete with miners for supplies which come off the Andes.
  • Los Bronces is 68km north east of Santiago and produced 327,700tpa of copper at C1 $1.58/lb in 2021, employs >1,500 with >2,300 permanent contractors

 

Russia – US Secretary of Defense says Russia has suffered significant military losses in Ukraine

  • The Pentagon is said to be working to ensure Russia does not have the ability to ‘very quickly reproduce that capability’ (NY Times).
  • US diplomats will soon return to the Ukraine with the US embassy reopening within a few weeks.

     

International Grain Council estimates global corn (maize) output will fall 13mt to 1.197bnt due to smaller crops in the US and Ukraine.

  • Ukraine crops are expected to fall to more than halve to 18.6mt from 41.9mt.

 

Currencies

US$1.0730/eur vs 1.0812/eur last week. Yen 128.12/$ vs 128.07/$. SAr 15.693/$ vs 15.602/$. $1.274/gbp vs $1.293/gbp. 0.717/aud vs 0.731/aud. CNY 6.554/$ vs 6.469/$.

 

Commodity News

Precious metals:         

Gold US$1,919/oz vs US$1,954/oz last week

Gold ETFs 107.0moz vs US$107.0moz last week

Platinum US$928/oz vs US$971/oz last week

Palladium US$2,315/oz vs US$2,453/oz last week

Silver US$23.80/oz vs US$24.53/oz last week

Rhodium US$18,500/oz vs US$18,650/oz last week

 

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 9,962/t vs US$10,303/t last week

Aluminium US$ 3,177/t vs US$3,311/t last week

Nickel US$ 33,000/t vs US$33,660/t last week

Zinc US$ 4,308/t vs US$4,425/t last week

Lead US$ 2,358/t vs US$2,411/t last week

Tin US$ 40,900/t vs US$42,665/t last week

 

Energy:           

Oil US$102.8/bbl vs US$107.7/bbl last week

Natural Gas US$6.406/mmbtu vs US$6.965/mmbtu last week

Uranium UXC US$56.60/lb vs $61.75/lb last week

         

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$148.4/t vs US$153.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$771.2/t vs US$794.4/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$245.0/t vs US$236.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$520.0/t vs US$520.0/t

 

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t vs US$82,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$127,407/t vs US$129,852/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$67,518/t vs US$69,177/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$3,490/t vs US$3,340/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% $2,131/t vs US$2,146/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$343/t vs US$343/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$825/t vs US$825/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 11.4/lb vs US$11.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 48.75/kg vs US$48.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$382/t vs US$392/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$94.7/t vs US$93.4/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,250/t vs US$1,250/t

 

Battery News

HM Treasury launches UK Transition Plan Taskforce

  • The UK Transition Plan Taskforce (TPT) has been launched to ‘develop a gold standard’ for climate transition plans for UK companies.
  • TPT has a two-year mandate to establish good practice for transition plans, which will inform the implementation of the UK’s Sustainability Disclosure Requirements.
  • TPT will set up three workstreams to fulfil the mandate:
    • Sector-neutral framework for private sector transition plans
    • Sector-specific guidance for finance and real economy sectors
    • Recommendations for companies preparing transition plans and the stakeholder using them.
  • Director of ESG at the Financial Conduct Authority, Sacha Sadan, said the regulator will work with TPT to “promote global consistency and comparability in the disclosure of transition plans”.
  • The launch of TPT follows Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s pledge at COP26 to make the UK the world’s first net zero-aligned financial centre.

 

Japan aiming for 20% share of global battery market by 2030

  • Japan’s industry ministry has announced that the country is aiming for a 20% share of the global rechargeable battery market in 2030 by boosting global output capacity at Japanese companies nearly 10-fold to 600GWh.
  • “We will step up our support to help the Japanese battery industry recover global market share, which it has lost over the past several years in the battle with Chinese and South Korean rivals,” said Nobutaka Takeo, a director at the industry ministry.
  • Japan’s market share in global lithium-ion batteries used in EVs fell to 21% in 2020 from 40% in 2015.
  • Its share in batteries used in energy storage systems fell to 5% in 2020 from 27% in 2016.
  • To reach the 2030 target, the country will aim to boost domestic production capacity of batteries used in EVs and energy storage systems to 150GWh from around 20GWh now, and global output capacity to 600GWh from around 70GW now.
  • Japan’s battery manufacturers will also target full-scale commercialisation of solid-state batteries around 2030.
  • The ministry will lay out a final battery strategy later this year, including concrete support measures from the government

 

GM and Honda in discussions over solid-state batteries

  • General Motors and Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC) are in talks about expanding their EV partnership to include developing solid-state batteries.
  • The two companies already develop hydrogen fuel cells and EVs together, and Honda is a minority investor in GM’s self-driving vehicle startup Cruise LLC.
  • “The companies have been discussing joint development of future batteries as they expand cooperation, though no decision has been made yet,” said Shinji Aoyama, Honda’s managing director for electrification, in an interview.
  • “Honda plans to start a small manufacturing pilot in 2024 to prove its ability to make the batteries and hopes to have them in production in the ‘late 2020s’,” Aoyama also said.
  • GM and Honda already have a strong relationship – Honda plans to build two mid-sized SUVs using GM’s Ultium battery pack in North America, and the companies have said they plan to jointly produce smaller EVs that could sell a million a year globally. 

     

Company News

Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – 20.17p, Mkt cap £94m+ – Cornish metals Special Meeting to approve Vision Blue Resources funding

+( assumes issuance of 225m fundraising shares and 20m deferred consideration shares)

Valuation 48p/s

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  • Special shareholders meeting for approval to complete £40.5m of funding to be held on March 28, 2022.
  • Resolutions:
    • (i) an ordinary resolution of disinterested shareholders of the Company to approve the creation of Vision Blue Resources Limited (“VBR”) as a new “control person” of the Company upon closing of the Offering;
    • (ii) a n ordinary resolution of the shareholders of the Company to authorize the directors of the Company to allot shares in the Company and to grant rights to subscribe for or convert any security into shares of the Company in connection with the Offering; and
    • (iii)   an extraordinary resolution of the shareholders of the Company to authorize the directors of the Company to allot certain equity securities for cash in connection with the Offering without first having to offer them on a pre-emptive basis to existing shareholders.
  • Shareholders representing approximately 37.8% of the stock have voted in favour of the requisite resolutions.
  • Vison Blue Resources run by Mick Davis, formerly, ceo of Xstrata which was sold to Glencore for $33bn. The Vision Blue fund is investing in metals ‘necessary to facilitate the green energy transition’.
  • Backed by a £25m investment from Vision Blue Resources, Cornish Metals is raising £40.5m for pumping the flooded workings and the delivery of a feasibility study on the re-opening of the mine.
  • Proceeds of the fund-raising will finance a 30-month work programme which includes £16.1m of dewatering costs, with a further £13m to be spent on securing underground access as well as surface and underground resource drilling and £1.2m to fund the completion of the mine feasibility study.
  • The ‘Lower’ mine contains NI 43-101 compliant ‘Indicated’ resources of over 2mt at an average grade of over 1.59% with an additional, ‘inferred’ resource of 2mt averaging 1.7% tin.
  • Based on a long-term tin price of US$30,000/t, and an assumed production profile, we estimate that resuming of production at South Crofty generates an NPV5% of US$404m and IRR of 35% with payback in 1.7 years.
  • Management are working on reopening the South Crofty tin mine following its dewatering. The current envisaged mine plan should produce some 3,987tpa of tin in concentrate.
  • Cornish Metals is also exploring at United Downs where high-grade intercepts in drilling indicate potential for a significant copper/tin resource.
  • Valuation: We assume a capital cost of US$117m, mining of 400,000tpa of ore upgraded using ore-sorting technology to 240,000tpa at a grade of 1.9% tin to generate an average of around 3,987tpa of tin in concentrate over a period of fifteen years. 
  • We assume a tin price of US$30,000/t and an average operating cost of around US$8,900/t.
  • On this basis, we estimate an after-tax NPV5% of US$404m and IRR of 35% with payback in 1.7 years.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals

 

Hummingbird Resources PLC (LSE:HUM) 14.2p, Mkt Cap £56M – Quarterly production drops with FY22 reiterated at 87-97koz

  • Q1/22 production totalled 15.5koz (Q4/21: 18.2koz) on the back of lower processed volumes and slightly weaker grades.
  • The team carried maintenance works on the processing plant during the period ahead of a ramp up in mining rates expected post Q1/22 with new excavators delivered to site towards the end of the quarter.
  • The plant processed 299kt at 1.71g/t during the period (Q4/21: 342kt at 1.79g/t).
  • Grades are expected to improve as mining accesses higher grade sections of the orebody.
  • Gold sales amounted to 15.2koz at average realised price of $1,837/oz (Q4/21: 18.5koz at $1,782/oz) with 2.6koz currently held in inventory.
  • AISC averaged $2,235/oz (Q4/21: $1,803/oz) reflecting lower gold production as well as inflationary pressures in fuel and consumables.
  • 2022 guidance reiterated at 87-97koz at $1,300-1,400/oz in AISC (2021: 88koz at $1,590/oz).
  • At Kouroussa, the Company continued with development works on course for the first gold pour in Q2/23.
  • Net debt position stood at $47.4m or $42.4m including gold inventory (Q4/21: $25m and $21m with inventory included) with a further $30m in Coris Bank debt expected to be drawn down to fund ongoing Kouroussa construction in Q2/22.

 

Libero Copper & Gold (OTCMKTS:LBCMF) C$0.9, Mkt Cap C$55m – Company responds to media article over the status of its exploration license

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) holds a 19.8% stake in LBC (12.6m shares + 6.3m C$0.75 warrants)

  • The Company released a clarification on the Mining Journal article published last week.
  • The article reported that the Company was ordered to suspend exploration works at the Mocoa copper/molybdenum porphyry project in Colombia on the basis that no prior consultation with local communities was carried.
  • The Company reported that the order was issued in respect of the FJT-131 concession area of the project, where no exploration works are currently carried.
  • The Company further added that all exploration activities including drilling are currently carried in neighbouring FJT-141 area and are not affected by the injunction issued by the Second Circuit Penal Judge of Mocoa.
  • The news follow on first results from the new drilling programme at Mocoa released earlier last week that returned wide good intersection including 251m at 1.13% CuEq within the wider interval of 443m at 0.74% CuEq with assays for the remainder ~2/3s of the hole completed to 1,235m currently pending.

Conclusion: The Libero commentary confirms the court injunction relates to a different part of the Mocoa license suggesting all concession contracts are valid and in good standing with exploration works able to continue. We are looking forward to further drilling results from its ongoing exploration programme at the largest copper deposit in Colombia.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

 

Orosur Mining Inc (AIM:OMI, TSX-V:OMI)* 10.75p, Mkt Cap £19m – Drilling commences at Pepas prospect, Anzá

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The Anzá project is currently operated by Minera Monte Águila (MMA).  MMA is itself a 50/50 JV between Newmont Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

  • Orosur reports that an exploratory drill programme has commenced at the Pepas prospect, situated to the North-East of the project area.
  • Pepas was chosen as a high-priority drill target following positive geochemical assay results as outlined in the March 8th announcement, as well as promising ground Induced Polarisation (IP) geophysical survey results.
  • Drilling has commenced following the completion of 35 holes at the central APTA project for a total of 15,195m.
  • Drilling at APTA has produced very encouraging results, including 59.55m @ 9.61g/t Au.
  • In addition to this move to Pepas, two more rigs are currently in the process of being imported into Colombia to drill at APTA and the northern prospects of Pepas and Pupino.
  • The rigs to be used a APTA can drill to depts of 1,200m, and therefore can test the mineralisation at depth as previous rigs on site had maximum depts of around 800m.

Conclusion: Following a successful drill campaign at APTA, Orosur’s team shifted focus to regional mapping and sampling in order to define high quality drill targets across a number of targets at Anza. Rock chip surface sampling yielded several results over >1.5 g/t at Pepas and the company hopes to replicate the success at APTA at its other prospects along the Aragon Fault.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Orosur Mining

 

Premier African Minerals Ltd (AIM:PREM) 0.32p, Mkt Cap £59m – Binding JV signed for 50% of Prem’s Li3 Project

  • Premier African Minerals reports that it has signed a binding JV agreement with Li3 Resources, where Li3 Resources will acquire a 50% interest in Premier’s hard-rock lithium assets located in the Mutare Greenstone Belt in Zimbabwe.
  • The Li3 Project holds a number of prospective claim blocks in the Mutare Greenstone Belt, and the agreement allows the project to be funded independently of Premier’s Zulu operations.
  • Li3 Resources has until 31 December 2022 to acquire the 50% interest in the Li3 Project by spending US$250,000 in further exploration works.
  • The project consists of a 1,500-hectare license area within the Mutare Greenstone Belt, with the are prospective for pegmatites.  
  • Li3 Resources is a private, lithium focused exploration company founded and backed by senior mining executives who have had prior success in the lithium sector.

 

Rambler Metals and Mining PLC (AIM:RMM, TSX-V:RAB)* 28.8p, Mkt Cap £46m – Drilling returns good grades at depth and extends the resource to the east

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NPV Valuation: 168p/s

  • Rambler Metals & Mining released assay results from the ongoing 2022 underground diamond drill programme at the Ming Copper-Gold Mine, Newfoundland and Labrador.
  • The Company completed 5,600m of drilling year to date in 2022 focusing on infill drilling of the Lower Footwall Zone (LFZ) and Ming North Zone (MNZ) as well as drill testing of the recently discovered Jennings and LP East Zones.
  • Two holes extended 100m past the Jennings Zone intersecting copper mineralization in a new discovery highlighting a potential new zone of high-grade copper/gold mineralization.
  • Drilling from 535L at LFZ returned high grade intersections from the main LFZ zone as well as Jennings and LP East including:
    • R22-535-07 – 9.00m @ 2.25% Cu – Jennings;
    • R22-535-08 – 4.50m @ 4.74% Cu – Jennings;
    • R22-535-09 – 3.78m @ 6.39% Cu – Jennings;
    • R22-535-10 – 4.63m @ 2.80% Cu – Jennings;
    • R22-535-11 – 9.00m @ 1.72% Cu – Jennings;
    • R22-535-13 – 5.78m @ 2.64% Cu – LP East.
  • Drilling from two holes (09 and 10) extended 100m past the Jennings Zone intersected new copper mineralisation to the east with selected intersections including
    • R22-535-09 – 11.00m @ 1.43% Cu – “New Discovery”;
    • R22-535-10 – 4.77m @ 1.51% Cu – “New Discovery”.
  • Drilling from 795L at MNZ into the Indicated and Inferred resource areas also returned a series of high grade intersections.
  • Ming North Zone Drilling Program
    • R22-795-01 – 7.90m @ 2.71% Cu
    • R22-795-02 – 18.40m @ 4.50% Cu
    • R22-795-03 – 6.50m @ 2.49% Cu
    • R22-795-04 – 6.00m @ 3.87% Cu
    • R22-795-06 – 4.97m @ 3.21% Cu and 14.84m @ 12.16% Cu
    • R22-795-08 – 8.95m @ 2.74% Cu and 22.07m @ 4.54% Cu
    • R22-795-10 – 16.00m @ 7.09% Cu
    • R22-795-11 – 13.00m @ 2.00% Cu
    • R22-795-12 – 4.60m @ 3.23% Cu and 7.55m @ 3.35% Cu
  • All reported intervals are downhole widths with true widths are 65-75% of downhole widths.
  • New zones remain open in all directions.
  • Relatively high copper grades in infill drilling in the Lower Footwall Zone are encouraging and indicate rising grades as the mine deepens

Conclusion: The drilling programme show grade continuity at LFW and MNZ returning good grades at depth with new drillholes extending it to the east. Results will be incorporated into the updated mineral reserve estimate and help guide updated mine plan.  

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Rambler Metals & Mining)

 

W Resources PLC (AIM:WRES) – Suspended – Nomad and brokers resign with immediate effect

  • The nomad and brokers have resigned from W Resources with immediate effect.
  • The company’s shares are currently suspended and the AIM listing will be cancelled unless another nomad is appointed within one month.
  • This means the company will almost certainly delist in one month given the challenges of refinancing the mine and working through the Nomad take on process in time.
  • W Resources requested for their shares to be to be suspended on 5 April ‘pending clarification of its financial position”
  • The company also suspended operations at its La Parilla tungsten mine in Spain.
  • Management were in “in discussions with BlackRock regarding the timing of incremental drawdowns … from the expanded US$5.5m facility provided by one or more funds and accounts managed by BlackRock Financial Management”.  W Resources confirmed at the time that had drawn US$2.5m from the facility.
  • The company said delivery of critical spare parts to La Parilla was adversely affected by the recent Spanish lorry drivers dispute and that the operations has also suffered the “highly inflated” LNG prices currently “up to seven times higher than the average monthly charges in 2021 and previous years”.
  • Management had also applied for Spanish government support under the Expediente de Regulación Temporal de Empleo (“ERTE”) employment retention programme.
  • The Company had also been informed that the Dirección General de Industria, Energía y Minas of Extremadura had challenged the W group’s authorisations to operate.

Conclusion: We suspect the combination of relatively low grade, high energy prices, trucking issues and the local challenge to the mine’s authorisation to operate killed off any chance of financing the company as a listed entity.

 

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

 

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

 

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver – BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel – Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt – LME

Oil Brent – ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore – NYMEX

Thermal Coal – Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal – SSY

RRE – Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite – Asian Metal

 

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

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