1. Introduction and data quality
This user guide is designed to be a useful reference guide with explanatory notes on the data issues and classifications that are key to the production and presentation of the Home Office’s annual statistical releases, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent Programme.
The release contains Experimental statistics on referrals to the Prevent Programme due to concerns that an individual is vulnerable to a risk of radicalisation. The statistics cover the journey of the individuals referred from referral to adoption as a Channel case, broken down by demographic statistics and geography.
Experimental Statistics are Official Statistics undergoing development. More information about Experimental Statistics can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website. The Home Office aims to improve the quality of data recording and assurance procedures so that these statistics can be designated as National Statistics in future years.
Experimental statistics status review
These statistics are considered to have immediate value to users and help with the understanding of how many individuals in England and Wales are deemed vulnerable to radicalisation and if suitable, how these individuals are supported by the Prevent Programme.
Since the publication of these statistics began in 2017, quality assurance exercises have shed light on various issues with the collection regarding consistency of recording case status’ and outcomes. Furthermore, this work has also highlighted limitations of the data as a result of multiple recording systems used to manage referrals at different stages of the Programme. As a result, Home Office analysts have worked with policy colleagues to address these issues which includes developing further guidance for Channel Case Officers, delivering updated training and scoping requirements for a merged data recording system.
Although the improvement work has been ongoing, the Home Office owned Channel management information system will soon be replaced. Due to the disruption likely to be caused by the changes in recording practices, Home Office statisticians will aim to review the experimental status of these statistics again once the new system has been launched and sufficient time has been allowed for users to familiarise themselves with the new system.
2. Data Quality
The statistics in this relase come from two data sources.
- data on referrals to Prevent are provided by the Counter-Terrorism Policing Headquarters (CTPHQ)
- data on Channel cases is extracted from the Home Office owned Channel Management Information System (CMIS)
Quality assurance
Before the data are published, they undergo a strict quality assurance (QA) process. The first part is undertaken by data providers, who need to keep administrative datasets accurate and up to date for operational purposes.
Each quarter, a group of Home Office and Counter-Terrorism Policing policy advisors meet to discuss caseloads for each of the Channel Panel areas. This allows potential inaccuracies in data recording to be detected, if for example there are areas with unusually high or unusually low caseloads. When potential inaccuracies are found, the Home Office Channel Policy team will commission dip-sampling of cases in the identified areas with an aim to ensure that best practice is being followed in line with the Channel duty guidance.
Similarly, Counter-Terrorism Policing coordinate Business Assurance Processes (BAP) with regions across England and Wales to ensure that best practice is being followed by their officers. They might commission a BAP following their quarterly performance reviews of Prevent.
The second part of the QA process is undertaken by statisticians within the Home Office. This part of the process identifies any potential data quality issues, which are then raised and resolved with Regional Prevent Coordinators.
Quality assurance is undertaken to confirm the figures presented in this release; however, the statistics rely on recording of information by police and Local Authority partners, so totals cannot be guaranteed to be complete and accurate. Home Office analysts will continue to work with data suppliers to improve the quality of these statistics as the collection continues.
- incomplete fields;
- inconsistencies in the data;
- duplicated cases;
- cases that are not up to date;
- incorrect values in data fields.
Once issues from the initial checks have been resolved, analysis is undertaken to check for unusual or unexpected trends in the data. Where alternative data sources are available, data may be cross-checked. Specifically, trends in the publication data are checked against the quarterly data feed received by the Homeland Security Group within the Home Office.
Limitations and caveats of the data
The limitations and caveats regarding this data are outlined below. Some of these limitations will be a by-product of the large-scale administrative processes required to collate these statistics. While the QA process is designed to minimise the scale of any data quality issues, there remain some limitations that even the most comprehensive of QA processes are unable to eliminate. The implications of the limitations are also outlined below.
Total Prevent referrals:
These data from a live database which is regularly updated. In some cases, there may be a delay in a particular case being entered into the system. Therefore, at any given time, the published figures may not be 100% accurate.
The total number of referrals reported includes a few individuals who had been referred more than once during the year. This information is included as each referral may not contain the same information (e.g. different sector of referral or type of concern) and may not have the same outcome (e.g. signposted to statutory partners, discussed at a Channel panel). Including multiple referrals provides a fuller picture of all support recorded and provided through the Prevent programme in a given year.
Demographis information:
Demographic information on individuals referred may not be complete in all cases. This is particularly relevant to referrals received towards the end of a financial year when the referral is still within the information gathering stage. However, this is likely to be a small proportion of all referrals received within a financial year.
In this report, we refer to gender rather than sex of individuals referred to Prevent. ‘Sex’ can be considered to refer to whether someone is male or female based on their physiology, with ‘gender’ representing a social construct or sense of self that takes a wider range of forms. However, it is likely that recording includes a mixture of physiological and personal identity. .
Type of concern raised:
The type of concern presented is based upon information provided by the referrer. For cases that progress further into the programme, officers may update this based upon new information that comes to light as they gather further information to help them provide support tailored to the individual’s need. Therefore, the statistics regarding the ‘type of concern’ raised, are likely to include a mix of type of concern raised by original referrer and type of concern that the Channel Case Officers believe the individual is presenting.
The type of concern raised is recorded slightly differently within the two data recording systems used to manage Prevent referrals and subsequent Channel cases (as described in Section 1). As a result, Home Office analysts map the categories used in each system to high level categories used within the publication. Please see the glossary of terms for more information in regard to the type of concerns included within each category.
Stage of the Prevent programme referrals progressed to:
- The stage of the programme that the individual referred progressed to, is based upon the latest case status recorded as at the date that the dataset was finalised for publication. This therefore relies on Channel Case Officers using case status’ correctly and timely in line with case progression. As a result, at any given time, the published figures regarding the number of referrals discussed at a Channel Panel and adopted as a Channel case may not be 100% accurate.
Services signposted to:
- Data quality checks found that in some cases, Channel Case Officers are recording that an individual has been ‘signposted to a service’ following case closure, when notifying the source of referral to re-refer if concerns are raised again in future. Therefore, the statistics on the number of individuals referred to alternative services may include services providing new support following case closure, and services continuing to support the individual following their exit from the Prevent Programme.
Data quality statement
Based on the summary above, we are satisfied that the data in this release are high quality and fit for purpose. As with all large administrative datasets, there will be some inaccuracies in the data. However, we believe that the effect of these is minimal, and while they should be considered, they do not detract significantly from the quality of the data. The QA processes in place at all stages of the process further minimise the scale of any data quality issues.
Where there are known data quality issues, these are highlighted in the relevant parts of the bulletin, user guide, or accompanying data tables.
Home Office statisticians continue to work with Home Office policy advisors and Counter-Terrorism Policing Head Quarters colleagues to develop further guidance and inform the updated training delivered to Channel Case Officers to improve consistency of recording.
3. Glossary of Terms
This glossary is intended to give an overview of the terms used in the statistical release, rather than full legal/technical descriptions. If there are terms in Prevent Programme statistical releases that you would like to be included in this glossary, please contact Home Office Statisticians via: HSAI_Statistics@homeoffice.gov.uk.
Within an explanation of a term, words in bold are explained elsewhere in the glossary.
Term: CMIS
Description: This is an acronym used for the Channel Management Information System. This is used to manage cases that are deemed suitable for the Channel Programme following a referral to Prevent.
Term: Channel Case
Description: Following agreement at the first Channel Panel, a referral is adopted as a Channel case in order to further assess the vulnerability, or to provide a tailored package of support where necessary and proportionate to do so.
Term: Channel Case Officer
Description: A Channel Case Officer refers to either the police counter-terrorism officer or the Home Office-funded Channel Coordinator, employed by the local authority. There are 10 pilot sites across England and Wales whereby a designated local authority role (Channel Coordinator) holds Channel case management responsibility instead of a police counter-terrorism officer. In these sites, the police still manage any terrorism risk, yet the Channel Coordinator administers the Channel Panels, coordinates referrals and updates the case management system, ensuring that the data is accurate. Channel Case Officers are responsible for managing referrals and cases through the Channel process in accordance with the Channel guidance and case management principles. See the Channel duty guidance for further information.
Term: Channel Panel
Description: A Channel Panel, chaired by the Local Authority, and attended by other partners such as representatives from education and health services, will meet to discuss the referral. They will discuss the extent of the vulnerability, assess all the circumstances of the case, and decide whether to adopt the individual as a Channel case.
Term: Prevent
Definition: Prevent forms part of the Government’s wider counter-terrorism strategy, known as CONTEST. Prevent aims to safeguard people from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism. For more information, please see the following publications on the GOV.UK website: Prevent duty guidance, Channel duty guidance and 2018 CONTEST strategy.
Term: Prevent Duty
Definition: Section 26 of the Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 (the Act) places a duty on certain bodies (“specified authorities” listed in Schedule 6 to the Act), in the exercise of their functions, to have “due regard to the need to prevent people from being drawn into terrorism”. This guidance is issued under section 29 of the Act. The Act states that the authorities subject to the provisions must have regard to this guidance when carrying out the duty. Please see the Prevent duty guidance for further information.
Source of referral categories
Term: Community
Definition: This includes those in the community that are not a friend or family member of the individual they are referring and are not subject to the Prevent Duty. This includes members of the public, charity workers, sports clubs and faith leaders, for example.
Term: Education
Definition: This includes professionals working in schools and higher/further education institutions.
Term: Friends and Family
Definition: This includes friends or family members of the individual referred.
Term: Health
Definition: This includes professionals working in the health sector including GPs, mental health professionals and hospital staff.
Term: HMPPS
Definition: This includes staff working for Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service, including Youth Offender Services.
Term: Local Authority
Definition: This includes those providing a Local Authority Service, including social services, housing services and children services.
Term: Police
Definition: This includes both local Policing and Counter-Terrorism Policing.
Term: Other source of referral
Definition: This includes those working in sectors that are not covered by the other sources of referral, for example those working in military, government (includes Home Office Enforcement and HMRC), or other private sectors of employment.
Source of referral categories
Term: Extreme Right-Wing radicalsation
Definition: This category covers sub-ideologies, including Cultural Nationalism, White Nationalism and White Supremacism. These themselves span a range of extreme beliefs such as anti-Semitism, anti-Islam, neo-Nazi, ethno-nationalism or anti-establishment.
Term: Islamist radlicalisation
Definition: This category reflects those who advocate, justify or glorify acts of violence (especially against civilians) or other illegal conduct to achieve fundamental changes to society. For example, forcing the implementation of their so-called ‘Caliphate’, or vigilante action against those they regard as enemies of their extreme version of Islam.
Term: Mixed, unstable or unclear ideology
Definition: This category reflects instances where the ideology presented involves a combination of elements from multiple ideologies (mixed), shifts between different ideologies (unstable), or where the individual does not present a coherent ideology yet may still be vulnerable to being drawn into terrorism (unclear). This also includes individuals that may be vulnerable out of a sense of duty, or a desire for belonging and those obsessed with massacre or extreme/mass violence without targeting a particular group.
The following options within the Prevent data recording system are including within this group:
- No CT ideology
- Undetermined ideology
- Conflicted ideology
- School Massacre ideology
- High CT risk but no ideology present
- No risk, vulnerability, or ideology present
- Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk
The final two options within the list are used when there is no clear ideological link to the concerns raised on referral and are used retrospectively by the case officers once further information gathering has been completed.
Term: Other type of concern
Definition: This category includes types of concerns that are not covered by the types of radicalisation concerns defined above. This includes concerns regarding international radicalisation groups, left-wing extremism, and Northern Ireland related extremism, for example.
Chanel case outcomes
Term: Case closed – no further CT concerns
Definition: This includes Channel cases that were closed as the Panel believed that the risk of radicalisation was suitable reduced and the objectives of the intervention were sufficiently addressed.
Term: Case closed – withdrew or withdrawn
Definition: This includes Channel cases that were closed as the individual concerned would not engage with the support provided or the police withdrew the individual from Channel as the risk had increased. In these circumstances, the police will manage any risk of terrorism they might present.
4. Conventions and revisions
Rounding
Data are provided unrounded in the data tables of the terrorism statistics releases. This is to promote transparency and allow users to exploit the data further.
Percentages, percentage changes and proportions presented in the releases are rounded to the nearest per cent using the ‘round half away from zero’ method. Therefore, in the borderline case where the fraction of the percentage is exactly 0.5, the rounded figure is equal to y + 0.5 if y is positive, and y – 0.5 if y is negative. For example, 23.5% is rounded to 24%, and -23.5% is rounded to -24%.
Where data are rounded, they may not sum to the totals shown, or, in the case of percentages, to 100%, because they have been rounded independently.
Revisions
The presented figures are correct at the time of publication and may include revisions for the periods covered by, and received since, the publication of the previous edition in the series.
Data may be revised for various reasons. For example, open cases are presented in this release based on the latest position as at the date of data provision to the Home Office. Regional Prevent Coordinators are asked for updates on any Channel cases that were open at the time of publication for previous releases and updated in the subsequent release. Substantial revisions to figures presented in earlier editions should they occur, are described in the ‘Revisions analysis’ section in each release.
Corrections and revisions follow the Home Office corporate revisions policy, as detailed on page 6 of its statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
5. Uses of the data
Specific uses of the data are listed below:
a)Informing the general public
About the state of the economy, society and the environment – figures are made available to increase transparency around the Prevent programme and provide the public with an accurate source of information on referrals.
About the activity of the police – figures are requested via Parliamentary Questions and Freedom of Information requests.
b)Government policy making and monitoring
Statistics are used to inform government policy by providing a national overview of how the programme is working on the ground.
c)Resource allocation – typically by central and local government
These statistics are used, alongside other information, to help determine the locations where the threat from terrorism and radicalisation is greatest, in order to allocate resources accordingly.
d)Third parties
These statistics are used by a range of third parties from civil liverty groups to academics.
Where are the latest published figures?
Dates of future releases are pre-announced on the Statistics: release calendar on GOV.UK.
Home Office statistical releases on the Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent Programme are available on the GOV.UK website.
Information on how the Home Office complies with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics is also on the GOV.UK website.
Related Publications
Prevent Referral Data – Police Scotland
Police Scotland publish statistics on the number of individuals referred to Prevent in Scotland.
Feedback and enquiries
We welcome feedback on the statistics. If you have any feedback or enquiries about this publication, please contact HSAI_Statistics@homeoffice.gov.uk.
Home Office Responsible Statistician:
Jodie Hargreaves, Head of Policing Statistics
The ‘Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme’ release is an Official Statistics output produced to the highest professional standards and free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate in accordance with the Home Office’s ‘Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics’ which covers our policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, and the Head of Profession, report to the National Statistician with respect to all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office Official Statistics products with respect to the Code of Practice, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.
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